性别视角下的中国生育率及生育年龄模式

既有以女性为中心的生育率研究难以揭示完整的生育图景。本文基于中国家庭追踪调查数据，系统考察了我国生育水平、模式演变及其性别差异。结果显示，我国30~39岁晚育群体的生育堆积效应释放后迅速回落，加之20~29岁适龄群体婚育推迟和生育率持续下降，导致总和生育率降低。受婚育年龄差、性别失衡与队列规模缩减等因素的交互影响，男性生育率低于女性，生育高峰更晚，生育年龄分布更为分散，这一性别差异在时期与队列分析中均得到验证。本研究揭示了生育行为在性别与年龄结构上的差异，拓展了生育研究视角，为健全覆盖男女及全生命周期的生育支持政策体系提供了理论依据和参考。

Studies focusing solely on female fertility offer an incomplete picture of overall reproductive dynamics. Using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data, this paper systematically examines fertility rates, the evolution of age-specific fertility patterns, and their gender differences. The findings reveal that after the concentrated fertility among women aged 30 ~39 rapidly subsided, and with delayed marriage and childbearing as well as continued declines in fertility rates among the core reproductive group aged 20 ~ 29, the total fertility rate has reached a new historic low.Influenced by the interplay of factors such as age gaps at marriage, gender imbalances, and shrinking cohort sizes, male fertility rates are consistently lower than female rates, with later and more dispersed fertility peaks. These differences are evident in both period and cohort analyses. This study reveals distinct gendered and age-related fertility patterns, expands the research perspective beyond a female-centric approach, and provides theoretical support for comprehensive fertility policies for both men and women across the life course.

本文系教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重大项目“中国家庭生育决策：新时代的理论建构与政策响应研究”（24JHQ016）的中期研究成果。